Posts Tagged ‘Unemployment’

Obama's Town Hall Speech President Barack Obama gave us another chance yesterday to witness his eloquent, seemingly Switzerland-like delivery and response to some fairly direct and tough comments and questions. Deflect, deflect, deflect (and maybe spin a little).

I happen to respect the man greatly for his intelligence and his ability to handle situations. I also think his job in office has certainly been better than I could ever do, but certainly not one that deserves acclaim.

This opinion was shared by a devout Democrat who was a CFO and mother of two kids headed off to college, when she expressed her disappointment in the actions (or lack thereof) of the current administration. She was hoping for change, but like many of us has had yet to see it. I understand that changing the economic health and sentiment of a nation takes time, so maybe it’s the grand promises that were made that are now blossoming into disappointments. (more…)

Is a jobs bill enough? In listening to the President speak yesterday – after he got the audio fixed- I couldn’t help but wonder if:

1. A jobs bill will really have a significant impact

2. Small business owners are even really aware of this bill and are indeed waiting to hire based on its passing? In other words, will “holding the bill hostage” deter these business owners from extending job offers?

Here is the transcript.

The businesses of investing and trading both have their complicated moments, as does the analysis of economic trends. But I do believe there are some major problems that actually have a more simple solution. Sometimes (in this business especially) many of us tend to think that a solution, method, or path to success must involve layers of complex analysis and in turn very complex solutions. I like to try and reduce things down to the simplest terms any time I can and relate a seemingly large situation or problem to something I can wrap my head around.

I first set out to quiz a couple of friends who are business owners in Dallas, Philadelphia, and southern New Jersey.  Did they even know a jobs bill was in the works?  The answer was a resounding NO.  (Although my realtor was familiar with it, she didn’t think it would help her business much). (more…)

Reversion to the Mean

Friday, July 9th, 2010

Jobless claims dropOne of my favorite things to do is observe and sometimes laugh as market pundits (and sometimes that includes me) attempt to explain the reasons why the market does what it does.  I woke up Thursday morning to S&P futures again moving higher by seven points and 10-year note yields above 3%. Lo and behold, the same folks who were calling for near-Armageddon last week now seem to think all is good in the world.  The headlines read, “Unemployment Claims Drop More Than Expected … Market Looking Strong.” But  is it … really?

The S&P was up 31 points Wednesday and is up roughly 60 points from its recent low of 1010 just a couple of days ago.   When the the S&P was trading at those lows, the index was below the two standard deviation daily Bollinger band, an oscillator that many analysts and traders use to pinpoint overbought or oversold conditions, (in this situation, the reading was obviously indicative of an oversold condition).

Supposedly, the big catalyst yesterday morning was that first-time unemployment claims for benefits dropped 21,000 in the past week to 454,000, when analysts were expecting a more narrow pullback to roughly 458,000.  First off, the weekly numbers tend to be extremely volatile and generally don’t tend to  get a ton of attention because of their unpredictable nature and their high tendency for revisions.  Aside from all that, this number is not great and is just a tad below what analysts were expecting; it certainly doesn’t strike me as earth shattering.

(more…)

An S&P 500 Earnings Update

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

Dollar Bills*Data courtesy of Bloomberg

So the second-quarter earnings season has basically ended and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) just had its worst monthly performance in almost 50 years, dropping 8.2% in May. In terms of earnings numbers for the overall index and the 500 companies that comprise it, the results were not horrific compared to past monthly earnings results and the movements of the index in response to that data.

Of the 496 companies currently contained in the index, 467 have reported results for the last quarter as of June 2, 2010. Overall year-over-year growth was 53.68% with 345 of the companies posting positive growth and 114 reporting negative growth. The biggest jump in terms of year-over-year growth was in the materials sector, which collectively saw a 367% jump in earnings. The worst sector was telecom, which saw negative earnings growth of 4.22%. Additionally, 82% of the companies in the S&P surprised analysts’ expectations to the upside.

So far, with the index at 1079, the trailing price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio of the S&P is 15.73 times and the one-year forward-looking p/e ratio is 13.27 times, according to Bloomberg data. Total earnings per share (EPS) in the index are currently $81.31, and Bloomberg analysts expect next year’s EPS to come in around $95.59.

These are the facts (and the estimates), but the truth of the matter is that we don’t know what the future will bring. (more…)

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