Posts Tagged ‘short straddle’

Google (GOOG) Options React to Earnings

Friday, July 15th, 2011

Google StraddleWe talked about “Expiration Week Earnings Plays” in this week’s webinar (you can access an archived version from this link or peruse our webinar archive page).  During the session, we highlighted what the option market was projecting about the expected move in companies such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Google (GOOG).

At the time of the webinar (after Tuesday’s close), at-the-money straddles were indicating a 3.2% move in JPM and a 4.4% move in Google through today’s expiration.  Remember a straddle is the simultaneous purchase (or sale) of the call and put with the same strikes (and same expiration). Adding the at-the-money call and put prices together is a reasonable reflection of the option market’s expected move for the underlying through the next expiration date at any given time. (more…)

Toyota Motor (TM) option strategies The recall drama isn’t over for Toyota Motor (NYSE:TM), which last week announced the recall of 1.1 million 2008 Corolla and Matrix vehicles, citing engine control troubles.  The potential flaw may result in stalling, which is ironic given that the automaker’s recent high-profile recall dealt with unwanted acceleration.

There hasn’t been any acceleration in the stock of late – unwanted or otherwise.  Since mid-June, the stock has been see-sawing between the 68 and 74 levels. At their current perch, TM is within a chip-shot of its 52-week low and 25% south of its 52-week high, reached in mid-January.

Range-based trading such as Toyota’s can be frustrating for stock traders who see their investments heading nowhere fast. The options market, however, has some potential solutions for sideways-trending stocks, and the short straddle described below is one of them.  We’ve also outlined a bearish put ratio spread for investors who believe this latest recall could spur further downside in the shares.

These are not trading recommendations, merely examples of different options trading strategies for educational purposes. The prices are taken as of Friday afternoon, when TM shares were trading at $69.15, up 43 cents on the day. For a full dissection of the strategies including profit/loss information, (more…)

International Game Technology options activity The Hotlist, which scans unusual option volume during the trading day, is available to all OptionsHouse customers, including those with a virtual trading account. Refer to this article for more information on Hotlist functionality.

With the broad market wearing its rally cap once again (due in part to vaguely upbeat murmurings from Ben Bernanke), International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT) shares are a definite underperformer.  The stock is off nearly 1% today (at $15.01) with the Dow and the S&P 500 Index up roughly the same amount. Other than one downgrade earlier this month, news has been light around this manufacturer of slot machines and other gaming hardware.

One large-scale investor appears to have sold an at-the-money straddle on the stock today.  This strategy is typically used when the investor expects little volatility from the underlying.  Just before noon Eastern Time, a block of 12,500 contracts traded on both the September 15 put and call.  The puts changed hands at the bid price of 40 cents while the calls traded at the bid price of 50 cents.  (more…)

Target (TGT) options strategies Everyone’s favorite bullseye-themed discount store, Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT), has been in a short-term slump.  From its August 9 high of $53.70, the shares have retreated nearly 7%. This decline has brought the shares below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which themselves are now in the process of crossing bearishly.  + of 2% to 4%.  Things could be looking up, however, as the company reported second-quarter earnings this morning.  Profit rose 14% as cost cutting helped offset the disappointing same-store sales growth.  Target earned 92 cents per share, matching estimates.

These factors didn’t dissuade Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, who boosted its outlook on the retailer on Tuesday.  The firm lifted its rating to “buy” from “neutral” and moved its price target up to $61 from $57.  The covering analyst noted that Target’s credit portfolio looks less risky and opined that a new 5% off promotion could drive more traffic into the stores.  The firm is also enthusiastic about Target’s inclusion of more grocery and perishable items.

For investors curious about including option strategies in their portfolio, we’ve outlined two potential option strategies below. First is an upside short straddle targeting about 5% of potential upside through the next month.  Next, for the bears, is a bear put spread, which will acheive maximum profit potential if TGT moves even fractionally lower between now and September expiration.

Keep in mind that these are not buy/sell/hold recommendations, merely examples of various strategies for educational purposes. The prices are taken as of Wednesday’s close, when TGT shares were trading at $51.95, up $1.27 on the day. (more…)

Texas Instruments (TXN)Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN) dipped into the red yesterday after its second-quarter earnings report failed to impress.  The technology company reported per-share earnings of 62 cents per share, more than triple year-ago results and in line with analysts’ expectations (but reportedly below the “whisper number”).  Revenue, meanwhile, hit $3.5 billion, narrowly missing the consensus view of $3.52 billion.

The stock was summarily downgraded to market perform from buy at Charter Equity Research, who cited “heavily bearish sentiment.”  An analyst with Standard & Poor’s also lowered his rating to hold from buy, setting a new target of $30 (down from $33).  Stifle maintained a buy rating on TXN but cut the price target by $2 to $34. And an analyst with Citigroup said the macroeconomic implications of this earnings report may not read well on Wall Street.

Whether you think TXN is bound to continue lower or think it may settle into a range at this point, there is likely to be an option strategy to consider employing.  The strategies below are hypothetical in nature and do not constitute buy/sell/hold recommendations.  Always consider your own risk/reward parameters before entering any trades. Prices are given as of Tuesday midday, when TXN was trading at $24.48, down $1.07.

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Earnings are typically perceived as volatile events since they are often a catalyst for a stock to move higher or lower in a dramatic way. Even though earnings can be volatile, they don’t always have to be and sometimes the announcements do little to create market movement.

The fact is that if you’re only investing in stocks, you’re exposed to risk that is directly dependent on the stock’s movement in the market. However, options strategies can help you manage risk and potentially profit when the stock performance remains relatively flat.

An example of a stock that is expected to remain relatively flat during earnings season is Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX).

SBUX will report earnings tonight after market close. Analysts are expecting earnings per share of about $0.24, with the high and low estimates being $0.27 and $0.22, respectively.

The coffee giant is trading at $25.22 as of midday Wednesday, and options traders are probably not expecting too large a move, based on how expensive the options are at this time.

There is $1.40 of time value built into the at-the-money straddle with 30 days before expiration. This places implied volatility at about 28%, compared to the stock’s 10-day observed volatility, which is at about 14%. (more…)

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