Posts Tagged ‘Option Volume’

Reading Option Volume and Open Interest

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

Electronic Trading Floor When investors or brokers execute a stock or option trade, these orders are routed to an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). These exchanges are where all trades (even electronic trades) actually take place.

This fact makes it hard to read the market. But two particular figures – option volume and open interest – can help traders gain insight into what is happening in a particular option series.

Many traders know how to use this information, but a brief review may be helpful. (more…)

Volume is the cause, price is the effect

Friday, September 10th, 2010

Volume is the cause, price is the effect There has been a lot of chatter recently about trading volume (or lack thereof). Specifically, the popular topic of discussion has been how particularly abysmal volume was during the month of August.

While seasonal volume trends are important and can have an effect on prices as well as price movement (volatility), I thought now would be a perfect time to offer some basic insight on volume, how to read it, and the dangers of trading a “low-volume” stock.

I have to give credit to an old friend for coining the term, “Volume is the cause and price is the effect,” because it really sums up volume’s function.  In the stock market, prices don’t typically change unless someone steps into the marketplace and either bids a stock price higher or offers it lower (just like a transaction on eBay won’t happen with just a seller offering a price; a buyer needs to match it). (more…)

Potash (POT) bull call spread Potash (NYSE:POT) outperformed the market yesterday after the rumor mills reignited with takeover speculation. The latest theory is that Sinochem could be interested in acquiring the agro-chemical company.

The shares closed up more than half a percent at $149.49. Notably active on the options front were the October 165 call and 175 calls. These options, which are out-of-the-money and expire in less than six weeks, each saw more than 5,000 contracts trade on light open interest.  In other words, it looks like this volume is trading on the opening side. (more…)

Option activity in Saks (SKS) The OptionsHouse Hotlist scans unusual option volume during the trading day. This tool is available to all OptionsHouse customers, including those with virtual trading accounts.

Omnicare, Inc. (NYSE:OCR) is modestly higher today, keeping pace with the broader market.  An enthusiastic spread trader expects considerable upside in the intermediate term, however, and traded this thesis by buying a large block of out-of-the-money bull call spreads today.

Just over an hour into the trading day, a large-scale investor bought nearly 5,000 of the March 25 calls and simultaneously sold 5,000 of the March 30 calls.  The net debit for the spread was 63 cents each, or more than $300,000 in premium for this trade. These calls were traded to open, as open interest was minimal on both strikes heading into the trading day.

The most the investor can earn on this spread is $4.37 per spread (the difference in strikes less the premium paid).  Maximum profit is achieved if OCR is trading above the 30 strike when the options expire in roughly 200 days.  This would require a jump of more than 50% from the stock’s current level of $19.54.  (more…)

Cintas (CTAS) unusual option activity The Hotlist, which scans unusual option volume throughout the session, is available to all OptionsHouse customers, including those who sign up for a virtual trading account. For more information on how the Hotlist works, read this article.

Cintas Corp. (NASDAQ:CTAS) shares have been consolidating above their 50-day simple moving average for the last month or so, and investors may be expecting a continuation of range-bound movement in the stock.  The September 25 put was notably active on Monday as a large-scale investor opened a large block of short puts.

Heading into yesterday’s session, this out-of-the-money option had 129 contracts in open interest. Monday’s volume was more than 13,300, indicating that yesterday’s action traded to open.  Shortly after noon Eastern Time, two blocks of 6,493 changed hands; one crossed at 25 cents per contract and one traded for 30 cents per contract.  The net premium on the tape for this pair of blocks was roughly $357,000 (12,986 contracts * 100 * 27.5 cents).

If these puts were sold to open, the investor will keep the premium collected at expiration if the shares are still above the 25 strike.  Below breakeven of $24.725, losses are unlimited down to zero. From its current perch of $26.13, CTAS would have to lose about 5.7% before September 17 in order to put the short put in losing territory.

Put selling is generally regarded as a moderately bullish strategy as it is generally executed with out-of-the-money options.  In sum, someone likely thinks CTAS will stay above $25 through mid-September.  (Of course, a put seller can try to exit a trade at any time before expiration). (more…)

CBOE Shares Coming to Market

Monday, June 14th, 2010

The Chicago Board Options Exchange, which is right across the street from where I’m sitting as I write this, is bringing their shares to market tomorrow, 11.7 million of them initially under the ticker CBOE. They are looking to raise at least $339 million with Goldman Sachs as the lead underwriter; shares are anticipated to be priced around $27-$30.

The CBOE, which spawned from the Chicago Board of Trade (now the CME group) back in 1973, was the first options exchange.  Prior to that, options traded over the counter and pricing options was a bit like triangulating Newton’s theory with an abacus.  That same year, two men changed the future of options forever.  The Black-Scholes model was created by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes and conveyed in their 1973 paper, “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities” – Robert C. Merton later expanded on the model.   This model and the creation of the CBOE were both major steps in the standardization of options pricing and the beginning of the options exchange system. 1973 was a slow year for options, with just 16 stocks listed and only call options trading on them. (more…)

Harley-Davidson storeFor more information on how the Hotlist tool functions, refer to this article.

One name at the top of today’s OptionsHouse Hotlist is Altria Group (NYSE:MO).  The stock is up 1.4% today, which is actually underperforming the 2.3% rally in the broader market. Almost 55,000 options have traded in the name already, and the most-active strike is the July 20 put, where more than 27,000 contracts have changed hands versus open interest of only 11,000.

Right out of the gate, large blocks changed hands between 68 and 70 cents per contract. In the first 90 minutes, these options were priced at 79 cents apiece.  On the day, the put is down only seven cents while the stock is up 29 cents.  The option’s delta suggests the puts should be lower by about 14 cents given the movement in the underlying, but buying demand seems to be inflating the price by raising the option’s implied volatility, now registering a 29% vol from the OH option chain.   Put buyers can lose as much as 100% of the premium paid but have significant reward potential down to the zero mark if the stock falls below breakeven.  Breakeven at expiration for the July 20 put bought at 68 cents would be $19.32. (more…)

Trading FloorWhen evaluating a trade, some investors look at the volume in the underlying stock as well as open interest, the bid/ask spread, and option volume in order to ascertain if liquidity is adequate. Some stocks tend to have more robust options volume than others, but “heavier” options volume does not necessarily mean the stock is of higher quality. Sometimes, we come across a stock that has seen notably heavy volume at one strike compared to another.

Wednesday, in Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS), the June 50 calls saw about 14,000 contracts hit the tape by noon central time. With open interest of just 3,200, this volume likely traded to open and appeared to be initiated by buyers. Volume at this one strike was six times more than all of the volume across all other call and put strikes combined.

At first glance, one might think this is a reason to get into a trade. After all, if someone was confident enough to buy 14,000 of the June 50 calls, the stock must be going higher. This assumption can be dangerous, because there is of course no way of knowing for sure which way a stock will move … or when. (more…)

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