Posts Tagged ‘MSFT’

Microsoft risk reversal Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire, down 11% in 2010 and up just 9% in the last six months. Comparatively, the Nasdaq Composite has gained 21% since mid-June.  Even taking dividends into account, this is notable underperformance. An investor is hoping the stock reverses this trend, however, and reflected this view with a synthetic long stock position in the software giant.

A synthetic long stock is a snazzy way of describing a strategy that uses one long call and one short put to simulate (or synthesize) the profit/loss profile of a long stock position.  The advantage to the synthetic long (versus the straight long) is the reduced capital required at the onset of the trade. (more…)

Microsoft Options Strategies Is a company’s fundamental strength enough to power a stock higher? It’s an age-old rhetorical question and one that blue-chip names like Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) have confronted for years. MSFT said earlier this week that it was upping its quarterly dividend to 16 cents per share from 13 cents, marking its first dividend increase in two years.

Is this boost a sign that MSFT executives have renewed confidence in the company and perhaps in the economy as a whole? The company is now set to pay out $5.6 billion to shareholders each year, making the software giant “one of the [world's] largest aggregate returns of cash to shareholders,” according to Jefferies & Co. (more…)

Bing Logo (Microsoft)

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) has dropped 16% over the last month and has breached previous support at its 50-week moving average. But a disconcerting pullback for some means a buying opportunity for others, and on Thursday, analysts with FBR upgraded MSFT shares to “outperform” from “market perform.”  (This is essentially a move to “buy” from “hold”).

The new MSFT bulls cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.2 and the stock’s recent underperformance of its technology peers, presenting investors with a potential opportunity to buy on the dip.

For bullish investors who don’t want to simply buy shares (or who want an opportunity to hedge their position), there are many options-trading strategies to explore.  The same is true for traders who disagree with FBR’s thesis and who want to take advantage of potential downside in the shares. Two hypothetical options trades on the stock – one bullish, one bearish – are outlined below.  Remember these are merely examples, not recommendations.  Consider your own risk/reward parameters and personal trading goals before executing any new trades.

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The NASDAQ , S&P 500 and Dow Jones are all struggling to maintain the anemic rally that has ensued for the past 1.5 weeks. Volume continues to dissipate in most major indices, SPY’s 14 day volume simple moving average has been on a downtrend since early-mid February.

Today’s options action has been focused, but not limited to, the financials, namely Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), American International Group (AIG) and Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF).

There is bullish call buying and put selling in BAC as well as call buyers in C, ahead of their 2 billion dollar trust preferred stock offering. AIG stock is extremely hard to borrow, and, on today’s rally, is generating heavy options activity. Traders who have a rough time shorting stock may consider using options to synthetically short the stock, if they desire to do so, although this comes at a price sometimes, as puts will likely be elevated in price.

Remember, there are a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we have already observed some heavy options activity today:

MSFT: $28.95 up $0.1500 or 0.52% volume: 23.66 million shares
Jan11 35.00 Calls: volume over 38989, versus Open Interest of 77689
Apr10 29.00 Calls: volume over 13802, versus Open Interest of 95028

BAC: $17.21 up $0.4100 or 2.44% volume: 140.84 million shares
Mar10 17.00 Calls: volume over 38690, versus Open Interest of 169867
Mar10 16.00 Puts: volume over 32104, versus Open Interest of 163423

AIG: $35.46 up $2.6900 or 8.21% volume: 50.12 million shares
Mar10 40.00 Calls: volume over 27321, versus Open Interest of 15988
Mar10 45.00 Calls: volume over 21344, versus Open Interest of 5680

ZION: $20.33 up $1.0700 or 5.56% volume: 8.87 million shares
Apr10 17.00 Puts: volume over 25418, versus Open Interest of 26352
Apr10 19.00 Puts: volume over 10974, versus Open Interest of 4794

AAPL: $224.70 up $1.6800 or 0.75% volume: 10.73 million shares,
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 19595, versus Open Interest of 26386
Mar10 220.00 Puts: volume over 19346, versus Open Interest of 13756

XOM: $67.00 up $0.2150 or 0.32% volume: 13.80 million shares
Apr10 70.00 Calls: volume over 19572, versus Open Interest of 56065

MS: $29.76 up $0.7100 or 2.44% volume: 16.57 million shares
Mar10 30.00 Calls: volume over 17770, versus Open Interest of 28538

RIMM: $74.96 up $1.4100 or 1.92% volume: 9.04 million shares
Mar10 75.00 Calls: volume over 16323, versus Open Interest of 45709

GE: $16.50 up $0.0050 or 0.03% volume: 40.43 million shares
Mar10 17.50 Calls: volume over 15494, versus Open Interest of 148738

STI: $26.51 up $0.6800 or 2.63% volume: 8.30 million shares
Apr10 22.00 Puts: volume over 15360, versus Open Interest of 16713

These are my team’s observations. If you have observations to share, please add your voice in the comments.

This week holds four potentially exciting catalysts; each with the potential to dominate business media headlines.  Is it any wonder that the VIX has spiked back above 25%?

  1. Wednesday night President Obama will deliver his State of the Union address
    Will Health Care remain in focus following the Massachusetts run-off election results?
    Will new Bank regulations and taxes receive a major emphasis?
    Any new initiatives on job creation stimulus?
  2. FED Chairman Ben Bernanke Confirmation vote expected before his term expires on January 31st
    This result will likely be known before it actually comes to a vote. I believe the market may not react well to any uncertainty of a non-confirmation vote
  3. FOMC meeting January 27
    What type of meeting would it be if the pre-confirmation tally turns further against Ben?
    Expectations are for no change to the Fed Funds targets but that decision has not been unanimous lately so the statement may change tone
  4. Earnings season is in full swing
    Apple earnings tonight and Tablet launch on Wednesday
    136 companies in the S&P 500 report including MSFT, JNJ, PG, CVX, T, AMZN and COP
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