Posts Tagged ‘Investing’

MarketWatch had a great article Friday in which Howard Gold discusses what he calls the “Worst Investment Ever.”  He was talking about levered exchange-traded funds, the very popular segment of the ETF family.

These levered ETFs provide double and triple daily returns (or inverse returns) on the underlying index on which they are based. Investors have flocked to these instruments to the tune of $40 billion in assets.  In my opinion, the majority of these assets are being used very incorrectly and to the detriment of the user.

The reason is these products are designed to replicate a multiple of the DAILY movement of the index.  The ETFs themselves use futures to achieve the desired geared changes.  Therefore, in order to provide double and triple the returns (positive and negative) on a daily basis, they are required to sell more futures on days the market is down and buy more futures when the market moves higher.

This process of chasing the market, buying high and selling low, causes a negative drift over time for the asset when the overall market is volatile.    The problem is, investors are holding these for multiple days and even months.

Over time, with the ups and downs in the market, these products are designed to underperform.  When looking at the pair of three-times levered ETFs on the financial sector over the past three months, many investors would expect if the bearish ETF (Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares – FAZ) were lower, the bullish ETF (Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3x Shares – FAS) would be higher.  Not the case.  FAZ is down over 20% and FAS is down over 30%!

Those investors who have held either of these ETFs have lost a significant percentage of their investment.

It is imperative for traders to remember these are designed to be intraday trading instruments, not a longer-term (or even shorter-term) hedge.  The problem is the market can gap lower on the open, making it tempting to hold the inverse Bear ETF overnight in your position as part of a hedged position.  Using put and put-spread strategies may be much more effective over time relative to owning a triple levered Bear ETF.

The above information is provided by OptionsHouse, LLC (“OptionsHouse”) for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any particular security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Commentary and opinions expressed are those of the author/speaker and not necessarily of OptionsHouse. Neither OptionsHouse nor any of its employees, officers, shareholders or affiliated companies guarantee the accuracy of or endorse the views or opinions of guest speakers or commentators. Projections or other information regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature and are not guarantees of future results. Any examples used that discuss trading profits or losses may not take into account trading commissions or fees.

All Risk-Free Assets are not the Same

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

All Risk-Free Assets are not the same I read an article this morning on CNBC.com about the asset allocations people are making into longer- term bond funds.  I must admit, I was somewhat frightened after reading it.  The portfolio manager interviewed did not believe the bond investors’ motives were sound, but he claimed the massive inflows into bond funds basically came from two camps.

First, since money-market returns are basically zero, people are moving money into longer-term bond funds in order to improve yield.  The second reason was around the fact that risk managers are forcing more long-term allocations into “risk-free” asset classes.

The fact of the matter is that there are risks to long-dated Treasury bonds.  Now, because the U.S. government can print more money, it will be highly likely to meet its obligations on the bonds.  This is true. For example, if an investor buys a 30-year bond with a 3.75% coupon and yield to maturity, he or she will likely get the coupon and the principal over that time frame.  However, this depends on the investor committing the money for the next 30 years.  Right now, rates are at historic lows because prevailing views around the economy are that the recovery will be weak for the extended future.

If for some reason that changes 12 months from now and inflation expectations come back to the marketplace at an annual rate of 4%, an investor holding a 30-year bond with a yield of 3.75% will be receiving a “real” return (basically defined as the return less the inflation rate) of NEGATIVE 0.25%.  That is not good. (more…)

What Can I Trade in an IRA?

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010


So you’ve opened an IRA (an Individual Retirement Account). Whether you’ve rolled over from another account or funded it with cash, establishing an IRA is a great step toward preparing for your financial future. So now what?  We frequently hear questions about what can be traded in an IRA account, so we’d like to take the opportunity to briefly address those here.

Once you are approved and funded, you can buy shares of stock and buy call and put options.  You may also sell covered calls and cash-secured puts. Risk is limited for all of these strategies.  Option credit spreads may only be traded on European style, cash-settled indices.  (European-style instruments may only be exercised at expiration, not before).

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How to Hedge Long Stock Positions

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

How to Hedge Long Stock Positions

I remember a time when investing meant buying quality mutual funds, stocks, and fixed-income investments from a full (overpaid) service broker, ), sitting back, and allowing the theory of “buy and hold” to run its course. With this routine came a confidence that, over time, stocks would realize a return that would satisfy all patient investors.  But then again, I also remember a time when everyone left their front doors unlocked.  Society unfortunately is not as secure, and Investing isn’t that simple anymore.  Now successful investors need to construct their investment portfolios to guard against a market disaster.  Successful traders hedge the risks associated with a long-only portfolio.

Hedging stock investment(s) against catastrophic loss can take several forms.  Long stock traders often have used stop-loss and stop-limit orders to close a long stock position if that share price falls to a pre-determined level.  Many traders use a 10% lower bound to place their stop-loss price. This allows the trader to believe that the most he will lose on this particular investment is 10%.  The problem with this strategy is twofold.  With a stop-loss order, if the stop price is breached, a market order is generated.  This guarantees a fill but the price is unknown. (more…)

Teaching Charlie Brown1.       Understand the equity markets. Options are derivatives, meaning they derive their prices from the prices of the stocks, ETFs and indexes they are listed on.  While options strategies can limit risk or even change the risk you take, you should have some sort of opinion of the general direction of the particular security you are trading.  Additionally, it’s probably good if you previously traded in the equity market. Market mechanics also play a role in how the options markets behave.  Know where and how your stock trades, its volume patterns and any relevant fundamental data.  Be aware of upcoming economic data being released, as macro data may also impact your trades.  Also important to note is that options have multipliers; one options contract represents the right/obligation to buy or sell 100 shares of the underlying.  Additionally, an option’s price also has a multiple of 100, so an option priced at $1.50 will in actuality cost $150 in your account.

2.     Know your broker’s platform, commissions, and important phone numbers. Before you even click the buy or sell button, make sure you know exactly how your broker’s platform works. This includes understanding all the different order types (market, limit, stop, trailing, target, all or none, fill or kill, etc.) It is very easy as a beginner and even as an experienced trader to make a simple mistake unrelated to the direction of the stock or the strategy you choose and put yourself in a pickle.

Hitting “buy” as opposed to “sell” and vice-versa is a common error, and using a market order in a fast-moving market (resulting in a disadvantageous fill) is another.  There are a multitude of other common pitfalls.  Practice entering spreads and make sure you get them right.  OptionsHouse will let you know the total commissions before you enter the trade, which is a nice feature, but be sure you check breakpoints on commissions if your broker offers any.

The option chain is one tool that is extremely important to all option traders as it lists the strike prices and expiration dates of all available calls or puts for any particular security.  An option chain also includes the most current prices paid for the calls and puts, as well as the daily changes in these prices. You should be able to access the option chains for the stocks in your portfolio via your brokerage platform or on websites specializing in option trading information. Note that option chains are only available on stocks, ETFs, and indexes on which options are traded.

Finally, it might be a good idea to write down your trades in a notebook along with your account numbers and the important phone numbers for your brokerage firm(s).   In the event that your computer fails or your power goes out, you will be prepared.  These are all real possibilities. (more…)

YieldInterest rates have moved lower recently due primarily to the financial scare across Europe.  The two-year Treasury is yielding a paltry 87 bps.  Even out 10 years, Treasuries are yielding about 3.25%.  What is an income investor to do?  Well, the recent sell-off in equities, accompanied by the expansion of implied volatility, has presented some interesting dividend yield plays.

Let’s take Conoco-Phillips (NYSE: COP) as an example:  The stock is trading at $50.50, and the company is currently paying out $2.20 per year in dividends.   That is an annual dividend yield of 4.35%, far outpacing the yield of the two-year treasury.  If you theoretically couple this with selling long-dated calls, things get really interesting.  Assuming that COP keeps its payout steady at $0.55 per quarter, investors could buy the stock for $50.50, sell the November 55 calls for $2.25, and collect two $0.55 dividends.  Let’s look at the cash flows assuming the stock does not move:

  • Collect $1.10 in dividends
  • Collect $2.25 in option premium
  • Return is $3.35/$50.50 = 6.6% for about half a year.  That is an annualized rate of more than 13%.  This seems pretty good if you look at Treasury rates over that same time frame.

If the stock rallies, returns will be better.

Now, what about the risks: (more…)

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