Posts Tagged ‘GS’

Morgan Stanley vs. Goldman Sachs

Thursday, July 22nd, 2010

Over the last few years, it was almost taken for granted that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) was the cream of the crop when it came to investment banks. Well, after its respective earnings announcements this past week, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) outdid its rival. There are headlines going around like, “Morgan Stanley Outshines Goldman Sachs in Trading.” The one place this was apparent was in equity trading where Goldman Sachs had net revenue of $235 million compared to $1.4 billion for Morgan Stanley.  Morgan Stanley also seemed to outperform in investment banking.

In my opinion, one quarter does not mean Morgan Stanley has overtaken Goldman Sachs as the best investment bank in the world. GS still has a market cap that far exceeds it. However, it does beg the question, “Which one is the better investment over the next year?”  There are some points that are in Morgan Stanley’s favor.

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Options Traders View Things Differently

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Option Traders Have a Different ViewWhile stock traders basically can only take a long or a short view on an underlying stock or ETF, options traders are given much more flexibility in the way they invest and assume risk.  Headlines can be motivators for many investors to buy, sell, or hold, and they can also create, change, and/or exacerbate sentiments and manias, both bullish and bearish, which can add to volatility in the marketplace and consequently the profit/loss profiles of many investors.

Stock traders, whether long or short, will have one-to-one exposure to each dollar change in the stock itself.  Because of this, stock traders may have to be more precise in their thesis and or timing of their trades.  Options traders certainly need to be correct as well, but with some strategies, options traders can be only “partially correct” and still achieve success. Let me explain.

Let’s assume you were bullish on Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) as a stock trader, but you were a bit nervous about the sector, FINREG, and the company’s current legal situation.  Of course, one option is to buy the stock at $139.00, which gives you unlimited upside and $139.00 of downside risk.  For every dollar move in the stock, you will gain/lose $1.00 for every share you own. Therefore, if you decided to purchase 100 shares, you would gain/lose $100.00 for every dollar advance/decline in the stock. (more…)

Trading FloorWhen evaluating a trade, some investors look at the volume in the underlying stock as well as open interest, the bid/ask spread, and option volume in order to ascertain if liquidity is adequate. Some stocks tend to have more robust options volume than others, but “heavier” options volume does not necessarily mean the stock is of higher quality. Sometimes, we come across a stock that has seen notably heavy volume at one strike compared to another.

Wednesday, in Citrix Systems (NASDAQ: CTXS), the June 50 calls saw about 14,000 contracts hit the tape by noon central time. With open interest of just 3,200, this volume likely traded to open and appeared to be initiated by buyers. Volume at this one strike was six times more than all of the volume across all other call and put strikes combined.

At first glance, one might think this is a reason to get into a trade. After all, if someone was confident enough to buy 14,000 of the June 50 calls, the stock must be going higher. This assumption can be dangerous, because there is of course no way of knowing for sure which way a stock will move … or when. (more…)

BIG drop in Goldman Sachs – GS

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Goldman Sachs just dropped off a cliff falling over 2 ½ points in about 4 minutes.

This stock has been on an absolute tear and it hit a new 52-week high earlier today.  I cannot find any news for the sell-off. However, 100,000 shares were traded during the decline and I believe this may be a case of a lack of liquidity filling in behind the stocks advance, leaving it vulnerable to a pull back.

The market, as a whole, has not responded to GS giving back all of today’s gains. If recent financial leader, Goldman continues to fall, it may prove difficult for the market to maintain its 1.7% advance.

Are we having earnings déjà vu all over again?

Let’s review:

  • Last quarter the market hit a hiccup in the end of June, sold off from a June-closing high of 944 in the S&P 500 index, down to 880 as we entered Q2 earnings.
  • This quarter the market has retraced from a high of 1071 in September to 1025 last Friday.
  • The VIX in July spiked from a low of 25% in June to a nervous 31% just prior to Alcoa’s release.
  • This month the VIX spiked to a 29.5% on Friday after closing at a low of 23.08% in September.

Leading up to tomorrow’s earnings kick-off with Alcoa, the market rallied 1.5% yesterday after market close, and continues to replicate this again so far today.

This behavior is opposite of what we experienced 3 months ago. The market sold off immediately prior to the earnings and likely indicating an oversold condition. With the last couple of weeks trending lower, the shorts may have piled in again and created another oversold condition yet again. This time we are snapping back before we get any earnings confirmation of improving conditions. Volumes have been light and this may be a sign of a bumpier road through this earnings season.

Remember earnings begin tomorrow, however next week they begin in earnest, with heavyweight financials C, BAC, GS and GE all scheduled to announce along with tech titan INTC.

Lastly, when earnings come on expiration week, the short dated options can react dramatically to changes in the underlying price of the stocks. The flipside is the premium can decay immediately if those earnings numbers are not enough of a catalyst to move the stocks. The risk to long options is 100% of the premium paid. On short-dated options that risk can occur in a very short time. The reward is unlimited to the moves above strike plus the premium paid of the underlying stock prices.

With August almost in the books I believe it is worthwhile to look at some specific sectors and stocks relative to the major market averages.

For a reference point the SPX index started the year at a level of 903.25.  So with today’s close at 1028.93 the overall market is up almost 14%.  It is more impressive to remember that on March 9th the index closed at 676.53, after hitting a intra-day low of 666.79 (up 54% from intra-day low)

On the sector front the best performing sector has been Info Tech up almost 40% YTD.

Within the highest weighted Tech companies Apple (AAPL) stands out,  up almost 100% .  Google (GOOG) a more pedestrian 51%.  Microsoft and Intel 27% and 38% respectively.

Also a leading sector the Materials sector has enjoyed just over a 30% YTD return

Freeport McMoran (FCX) a copper and gold company stands 167% higher than the start of the year!

Heavy weight Monsanto (MON) is only better by 18%

Consumer Discretionary names as a sector are up by 23.6% from the start of the year.  This sector as it is driven by consumers has definite winners and losers.  McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) which was a relative bastion of safety in the last quarter of 2008 is actually down9.8% on the year.  This is likely because investors have rotated out of safety into higher beta higher risk names.

Ford (F) is back from the dead, taking the pole position of the top 15 members in this sector up 237%.  Remember this company did not take government money as Chrysler and General Motors (MTLQQ.PK) did.  Amazon (AMZN), up 61%, Target  (TGT) up 37% and Kohls (KSS) up 45%, are three retailers that compare favorably.

The consumer staples sector is higher by only 3% as investors have rotated out of traditional safety stocks.  Proctor Gamble (PG) is down 13% Wal Mart (WMT) is down almost 9% and Coca-Cola (KO) is up only 8%.

Lastly Financials are up 17% for the year.  This sector has had the biggest thrill ride at the lows it was down over 50%, from the lows it is up 143%!

Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 94% to lead the charge

American Experess (AXP) is higher by 84% as the consumer is still using the little green cards.

In the Banking subsector Wells Fargo (WFC) is still down on the year losing 7.3%

Citigroup (C) still has issues down 22%

Bank of America (BAC)  has recovered 27%

And J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is up a respectable 36% which is great by most measures, unfortunately they measure vs. Goldman Sachs typically.  So Jamie Dimon is probably disappointed.

The next move in the overall market is anyone’s guess.  The 10 day historical vol is calculated today at 10.79%.  The VIX is stubbornly staying near the 25% level, possibly indicating we are entering a more volatile trading environment into the last 4 months of the year.  The more dispersion between sectors, and between stocks in performance the more “normal” trading will be.

Remember the stock market is the ultimate forward looking indicator of future cash flows and expected growth for the economy and individual companies.

There is no better indicator out there.

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