Posts Tagged ‘Deere’

Does Deere (NYSE:DE) Have Wind in its Sails?

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

Deere (NYSE:DE) Option Strategies A couple of weeks ago, we took a look at Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) the day before its earnings report and outlined option strategies investors could use whether they expected positive or negative results.  As it turned out, DE surprised to the upside (by 22 cents, no less) and still moved lower over the next few days.  Some call this the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phenomenon.

If the bears had sold a December 67.50/72.50 call spread ahead of the report for $1.90, they’d be able to buy it back today for $1.50 (buying the 67.50 call and selling the 72.50 call), netting a small profit.  The bulls, however, wouldn’t have been so fortunate, especially if they had opted for a short-term strategy.

Deere is an interesting stock and it seems to have settled down from its post-earnings volatility, so we thought it might be time to revisit it. The agriculture company was in the news Tuesday after agreeing to sell its wind energy unit to Exelon Corp. (NYSE:EXC) for a cool $900 million. The sale is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

DE gained almost half a percent in Tuesday’s trading, outperforming the market.  At the close, the shares were trading at $63.27, up 29 cents.

For investors looking to learn more about option strategies that could work in their portfolios, we’ve outlined two potential trades below in Deere: one bullish covered strangle and one bearish long put spread. These are not trading recommendations, merely examples of different options trading strategies for educational purposes. For a complete dissection of the strategies including profit/loss information… (more…)

John Deere (DE) option strategies Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) recently abandoned a nice uptrend that had taken the shares to a new closing high on August 9. This uptrend, driven in part by strength in the overall agriculture sector as Russia experienced a drought, came to a screeching halt as the broader market spun on its heels.

Analysts with Citigroup, however, may feel that the pullback in DE is short-lived.  On Monday, the firm upped its price target on the stock to $75 from $70. The firm expects “better [North American] large ag equipment demand, and a more favorable price/cost spread driving upside to near term numbers.” The price adjustment, which allows for roughly 15% upside in the shares, comes just days before Deere earnings scheduled for the morning of August 18.  Analysts are expecting results of $1.22 per share.

With earnings around the corner, volatility is elevated; the front-month, at-the-money DE straddle (August 65) is currently priced at $3.17, or roughly 4.8% of strike.  In other words, the options market thinks DE is likely to move almost 5% (higher or lower) between now and the expiration of August options this Friday.

We’ve outlined two potential option strategies here – first a calendar spread for those wanting to express a bullish thesis but concerned by elevated premiums just prior to earnings. Second is a bear call spread, which is a credit spread and can actually benefit from falling implied vols.

Remember these are not buy/sell/hold recommendations, merely examples of various strategies for educational purposes. The prices are taken as of Monday afternoon, when DE shares were trading at $65.60, up 75 cents on the day.

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