Posts Tagged ‘AA’

Alcoa Options Activity The broad market took it on the chin yesterday, losing around 1.5%, and Alcoa (AA) was among the worst-performing names in the Dow, shedding more than 3% of its value. The aluminum company’s CEO said Tuesday that while U.S. industrial demand for the metal is improving, he doesn’t feel “the current environment is such that [Alcoa] want[s] to bring capacity back” to pre-recession levels.

Some traders seem to have viewed pullback as a buying opportunity. Two large blocks traded on in-the-money, intermediate-term calls during Tuesday’s session. (more…)

Earnings Season Survival Guide

Monday, July 12th, 2010
Buy, sell, hold?

Buy, sell, hold?

The days of reckoning are upon us!  So earnings season officially kicks off today with Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) report.  CSX Corporation (NYSE:CSX) and Novellus Systems (NASDAQ:NVLS) are on today’s schedule as well.  As I write this at 6:00 a.m. Monday morning, futures in the S&P, DJX and Nasdaq are lower after a week’s worth of gains.

I wanted to take a couple of quick minutes today to highlight some things to remember and consider during earnings season as you make your decisions to buy, sell or hold.  These things are also important to remember if you plan on employing an options strategy.  Some high-profile companies that are scheduled to report this week are:

  • INTC, YUM and FAST on Tuesday
  • MAR on Wednesday
  • AMD, JPM and GOOG on Thursday
  • BAC, GCI, C and GE on Friday

There are many others reporting; the above issues are simply some of the more heavily followed.  If you are wondering when a company of interest reports earnings, check out the OptionsHouse Research tab to locate the next earnings date under the “Events Calendar.”  If none is posted, go to the company’s website, as some corporations may announce changes close to its report date or wait to disclose their exact earnings date.

Now that you know the relevant earnings date for your stocks, here are some factors to examine when deciding how to proceed:

(more…)

Here Come the Earnings…

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

earningsIt’s the broken record that we traders love to play again and again.  While the process is the same, the outcome is almost always different.  Earnings season is often a catalyst for change in a stock’s direction, volatility, and even sentiment.   It can also simply accelerate a trajectory or cause a stock to do nothing at all, but regardless, just about every investor needs to be hyper-aware of earnings dates, especially the ones that involve your stocks or their peers.

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) is the supposed grand marshal of this quarterly parade, but even though there are some stocks that will report sooner, the aluminum giant’s reporting date should be noted, as the weeks following Alcoa’s report is when the bulk of S&P 500 companies report.

Sectors and their leading stocks tend to report in clumps within a short time frame of one to three days. So if you know a large retailer is reporting, chances are that a comparable peer’s report is not far away.  Peers can obviously have an effect on each other’s stock price and more often than not, a negative report by one stock in a sector will have a negative effect on the others and vice-versa. Some traders call this phenomenon “falling in sympathy.” (more…)

The S&P 500 started trading last Friday at the same level at which it closed on Monday of the same week. The Dow and NASDAQ were also flat on the week.

Even though Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off earnings season today, there were some earnings reports last week that began to pepper in a little excitement for some investors. For instance, Monsanto (MON) disappointed many investors with reports of lackluster earnings of only $1.70 per share. Reports indicated the agriculture giant missed sales and revenue forecasts and experienced marked weakness in their Roundup brand and other glyphosate herbicide products.

They did perform well in their seed division, but missed on overall revenue expectations and confirmed EPS guidance at the low end of its previously guided range of $3.10 to $3.30. MON also retracted its long-standing goal of doubling 2007 gross profit by 2012.

Surprisingly, with all this negativity, the stock actually moved higher after the report.

How and why does this happen?

One would think if the company is not making as much as analysts expected, the stock should be selling off, right? Not always. Remember, everyone has unique expectations of a stock’s earnings performance. (more…)

Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off earnings season with its numbers release due out on April 12 this year. However, other key earnings reports starting this week will include Bed, Bath and Beyond (BBBY), Monsanto (MON), Family Dollar Stores (FDO) and Salesforce.com (CRM), amongst others. These announcements will likely set the tone for the markets and earnings season to come.

For many investors, earnings are the realization and confirmation of a company’s fiscal health and well-being, or an indicator of potential problems. Traders, analysts and experts alike often discuss price-to-earnings ratios (p/e ratio) and other factors when determining whether to buy, sell or hold a position.

Profit-to-Earnings Ratio equals price-per-share divided by annual earnings-per-share

The p/e ratio, price-to-earnings ratio, often referred to as “earnings multiple” or simply “multiple”, is simply the price of that stock divided by how much they earn. P/E ratios are not only stock specific, but certain types of companies and their respective sectors also posses p/e characteristics that investors use to measure expected performance. (more…)

Deutsche Bank downgraded Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) to “hold” from “buy,” this morning, citing higher energy prices and increased costs. Deutsche additionally trimmed its 2011 profit outlook to $1.51 per share from $2.08 and lowered its 12-month price target to $18 from $25 (note that this still represents 24% of upside from current levels). AA closed at $14.70 heading into the holiday weekend and is currently trading at $14.66.

“A series of ‘one-off’ business impacts appear to be dampening Alcoa’s near-term ability to continue capitalizing on higher aluminum prices,” the bank said in an article on MarketWatch.

This downgrade occurs one week before Alcoa unofficially kicks off the next earnings season when it reports after next Monday’s close. Analysts are expecting per-share results of 15 cents. Last quarter, the aluminum company’s earnings results fell short of the consensus view by a nickel and the stock suffered an 11% drop the day after. While this report is a shorter-term driver, it could be symptomatic of Deutsche Bank’s growing concerns.

In the bulls’ corner, providing a solid base in recent weeks is technical support, both from the stock’s 50-day moving average and the 14-level. Additionally, AA’s 40-week moving average has helped guide the stock gradually higher since last June.

Some traders may share Deutsche Bank’s concerns surrounding Alcoa, but others may favor the fundamental backdrop of potentially strong industrial demand (especially from emerging markets). Investors who are bearish, bullish, or neutral on AA can trade the metals name with options. This typically means less capital commitment up front and potentially improved returns thanks to the concept of leverage. On the flip side, many options strategies have more at risk on a percentage basis. For those interested in expressing their view with AA options, two potential strategies are outlined below. These are not buy-sell-hold recommendations, just hypothetical examples of two trades.

Always be sure to do your own research and take your personal risk/reward tolerance into account.

*Option prices given as of Monday morning (more…)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s been another low volatility morning in the markets.  All the major indices have been fluttering around unchanged and looking a bit tired as volume remains relatively low.

Although the initial direction appeared bullish following a strong retail sales number, the broad market quickly took a turn to the downside as consumer sentiment declined to 72.50 in March from a reading of 73.6 in February.  Economists were expecting the March sentiment reading to come in at 74.

The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) is creeping higher to 18.4% and the CBOE Nasdaq-100 Volatility Index (VXN) also edging slightly higher to 19.77%, even with the minor moves in the underlying indices.

We saw a likely buyer of 2,500 of the Potash (NYSE: POT) January 2012 calls hit the tape this morning, which could be perceived as bullish as Potash hiked its profit outlook for the first quarter, which is being reflected in the stock price; POT is currently up 7% at $125.   This is also on a day when the merger war between industry peers Yara International, CF Industries (NYSE: CF), and Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA) seems to be coming to an end.

Remember there are a few hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we are seeing some heavy options activity today.  Also remember that options can be bought or sold and volume does not indicate which side the trades are on:

C: $4.07 down $0.1100 or 2.63% volume: 483.43 million shares
Mar10 4.00 Calls: volume over 86764, versus open interest of 754012
Mar10 4.00 Puts: volume over 70451, versus open interest of 433712

USO: $40.03 down $0.0200 or 0.05% volume: 3.74 million shares
Mar10 43.00 Calls: volume over 30108, versus open interest of 51832
Mar10 40.00 Calls: volume over 12590, versus open interest of 47195

TRA: $46.16 down $0.7400 or 1.58% volume: 14.24 million shares
Mar10 46.00 Puts: volume over 18486, versus open interest of 19532

AAPL: $226.66 up $1.1600 or 0.51% volume: 7.21 million shares
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 17291, versus open interest of 29184

SVU: $17.03 up $0.9600 or 5.97% volume: 9.71 million shares
Apr10 17.50 Calls: volume over 16552, versus open interest of 3666

CF: $95.80 down $4.8100 or 4.78% volume: 5.43 million shares
Mar10 95.00 Puts: volume over 12567, versus open interest of 29059
Mar10 90.00 Puts: volume over 9898, versus open interest of 17247

AA: $13.67 up $0.0300 or 0.22% volume: 11.42 million shares
Apr10 12.00 Puts: volume over 12220, versus open interest of 28069

POT: $124.47 up $7.5410 or 6.45% volume: 8.64 million shares
Mar10 135.00 Calls: volume over 11703, versus open interest of 8481
Mar10 125.00 Calls: volume over 11122, versus open interest of 14945

NVDA:
$17.22 up $0.0250 or 0.15% volume: 6.28 million shares
Mar10 18.00 Calls: volume over 11203, versus open interest of 13984

F: $13.14 up $0.2305 or 1.79% volume: 46.09 million shares
Mar10 13.00 Calls: volume over 10632, versus open interest of 82714
Jan11 12.50 Puts: volume over 10102, versus open interest of 63772

CA:
$22.60 down $0.0600 or 0.26% volume: 1.29 million shares
Mar10 22.50 Puts: volume over 10050, versus open interest of 2690

EWY: $48.78 down $0.1700 or 0.35% volume: 0.67 million shares
Apr10 43.00 Puts: volume over 10000, versus open interest of 297

These are my team’s observations. If you have seen something else in your own analysis, please add your voice in the comments.

Photo Credit: Frankie Roberto

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