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Posts Tagged ‘FedEx’

FedEx (FDX) option trades for bulls and bears

Friday, July 2nd, 2010

FedEx (FDX)FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and its close rival United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) have been popular names in the analyst world lately.  Thursday, UBS upgraded its ratings on both companies to buy from neutral, noting that the recent pullbacks in both stocks have presented buying opportunities that may be “compelling for investors.”  UBS sees solid fundamentals from both companies and has set price targets of $100 per share for FDX and $74 for UPS.  Earlier in the week, Macquarie initiated coverage on UPS and FDX with respective ratings of outperform and neutral (and price targets of $70 and $85).

The pullback UBS was referencing has dropped FDX from a mid-April high of $97.75 to its current level just below $72 – a 26% drop in about two months.  Along the way, the shares violated several trendlines of support and took out their early-February low.  The stock is currently trading in territory not seen since early September and is perched on its 100-week moving average, at $70.81.

Although UBS analysts and others are limited to a three-point “buy-hold-sell” scale, option traders have a much wider variety of strategies to choose from.  Two potential option trades in FedEx – one bullish, one bearish – are outlined below.  Remember these are hypothetical examples, not recommendations.  Consider your risk/reward parameters and trading goals before executing any new trades.

*Prices given as of Thursday afternoon. FDX was trading at $71.79. (more…)

Looking at FedEx Options Strategies After an Upgrade

Friday, May 21st, 2010

FedExDuring Thursday’s market meltdown, one analyst still had time for optimistic words on United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) and FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX). David Ross of Stifel Nicolaus boosted his rating on both names to “buy,” noting the shipping industry has room for upside as the global economy recovers.  Ross was a bit more cautious on FDX, noting that it might have some near-term challenges to overcome.

Technically speaking, FDX has pulled back of late (along with the rest of the market) but is resting above its 50-week moving average.  This trendline is sitting near the $80 level, which was also the site of the stock’s early February low.  Stock traders who are interested in either side of the FDX trade but who don’t want to assume the risk of a short sale (or pay $8,000 for 100 shares) could consider option trading strategies.   Two hypothetical options trades on the stock – one moderately bullish, one neutral – are described below.  Remember these are merely examples, not recommendations.  Consider your own risk/reward parameters and personal trading goals before executing any new trades. (more…)

What Does Morgan Keenan’s FedEx (FDX) Upgrade Mean to Options Traders?

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

This morning FedEx Corporation (FDX) was upgraded to “outperform” from “market perform” by brokerage firm Morgan Keenan in anticipation the company could enjoy stronger earnings leverage as its volumes bounce back. This upgrade comes ahead of earnings, which are expected from FedEx before the open on March 18th. Analysts are expecting per-share results of 71 cents, a vast improvement from the company’s year-ago loss of 15 cents per share. At the time Morgan Keegan issued this upgrade, FDX was trading around $86.14.

While brokerage houses such as Morgan Keegan are limited to “buy,” “hold,” and “sell,” recommendations, investors who trade with options have a broad arsenal of strategies at their disposal. Here’s a look at two of the ways options investors might trade FedEx, whether they share Morgan Keegan’s optimism or wish to trade against the grain. These are not buy-sell-hold recommendations – just potential strategies that fall into the bullish and bearish camps.

Traders who are similarly bullish on FedEx might consider a bull call spread, buying the March 70 call and selling the March 90 call, paying a net debit of $15.45 to do so. The maximum loss for this call spread is 100 percent of the debit paid; the maximum gain is $4.55, or the difference in strike prices minus the debit paid. This trade will be profitable if FDX is trading above $85.45 when these options expire in two weeks.

For those investors who feel FedEx could have some downside in its future, they might consider a split strike synthetic, which is a way to simulate the risk/reward profile of a short stock position through the use of options. An investor might buy January 2011 70-strike puts for $3.55 and sell January 2011 100-strike calls for $3.75 each, collecting a net credit of 20 cents per spread. At expiration, between the $70 and $100 levels, the investor will keep this credit as both options expire out-of-the-money. If the stock declines below $70, upside is theoretically unlimited down to the zero mark. On the flip side, losses are unlimited once FedEx crosses beyond the $100 level.

One of the attractive things about options is that they come in all shapes and sizes and can be calibrated to suit a variety of trading situations. Whether you agree or disagree with Morgan Keegan’s bullish outlook on FedEx, there may be an options strategy that could work for you.

Photo Credit: Ack Ook