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Posts Tagged ‘Citigroup’

From Trading Stocks to Trading Options

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

Balancing actAs everyone knows, most investors continue to use stocks (as opposed to options) for their primary investment tool.  Although options volume continues to grow each year, there are still a lot of people who do not understand what all the fuss is about.  Well hopefully, I can give you a quick rundown of the reasons investors should be versed in both stock and options strategies.  By “versed,” I mean educated in how options work and the potential benefits (and risks) they provide when used correctly.  I do not mean, “just try and figure it out by making real trades without knowing what you are doing.”

In order to move along, I will skip the super-basics:  What is a call? What is a put?  What is expiration? etc.  If you need to brush up on these mechanics go to The Options Industry Council. Here the option novice will find the information needed to understand this blog.

How Options Compare to Stocks:

1. The potential for increased return on investment by risking less capital.

Prices in examples given are as of Monday, June 14.

If you expect a stock to move within a defined time frame, you can buy in-the-money (ITM) options that would express this view but require less capital than buying the stock on margin.  For example, if you think that Citigroup (NYSE:C) is going to be trading as high as $5 by the middle of September, you have two choices: (more…)

Personal Spending Strengthens the Market and Heavy Options Activity in Citigroup (C) and MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)

Monday, March 29th, 2010

The markets are looking fairly strong this morning after data showed consumer spending of personal income was basically flat compared to the prior month. This, in addition to a slower savings rate among Americans and a flattish reading on inflation, seems to be having a soothing effect on the market.

Personal spending did increase slightly by .3%, and consumer spending comprises about 70% of overall demand in the U.S. economy.

Over the past couple days; a morning rally followed by profit taking in the afternoon has been par for the course. Some say this is indicative of an impending sell-off, as short-term traders are unwilling to hold positions overnight. We will see if this theory holds true.

Monday Morning Options Action

The U.S. treasury announced it will be selling its $7.7 billion common-stock stake in Citigroup (C) over the course of the year with the help of Morgan Stanley, C shares are off 2.7% to $4.18. The options volume is extremely heavy in Citigroup today, but this is not uncommon for the stock.

Other heavy options volume was focused in MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), where we saw the May 15 – April 14 call spread being bought 4500 times for .05. This could be a trader rolling his long-call position from April to May, but this is only speculation.

I mention this speculation in WFR because, back on 3/25/10, there was a large percentage of calls traded versus puts, more than 8 to 1. Earnings announcements are expected on 4/22/2010 with a consensus estimate of $0.05 per share.

It can often be a puzzle trying to figure out the impetus for a certain trade when evaluating large options volume; things are not always as they seem. This means that just because there are large amounts of calls being bought, traders may not be making straight bullish bets. They may have an underlying short stock position or short delta from another options position.

As for WFR, we are not seeing any major news today and the stock is currently down $.03 to $14.65 (price as of midday Monday).

Remember there are a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we are seeing some heavy options activity today. Also remember that options can be bought or sold and volume does not indicate which.

These are a few of my team’s observations this morning. If you have others you would like to add to this list, please feel free to add them in the comments.

Photo Credit: Steve Wampler

11 Big Movers in Today’s Options Market: Cisco Systems (CSCO), Citigroup (C) and Research in Motion (RIMM), Among Others

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

What started as another flat day in the markets, is turning out to be a bullish one…Even though overall stock volume remains light, we are still seeing some heavy options activity.

Already, there has been quite a bit of spread activity all around with heavy action in Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO). This is likely in reaction to an earlier announcement for a new routing system that is 12 times faster than Cisco’s competitors.  Ahead of the announcement, we actually saw the Jan 30 calls being sold, which could be interpreted as a move by many investors to take advantage of volatility.

Citigroup (C) is also much higher today and options traders are active there as well.

Remember, there are still a couple hours left in the trading day and the volume of these issues may continue to rise, but this is where we have already been seeing some heavy options activity early today.

Big Movers in Today’s Market:

GME: $18.50 up $0.0300 or 0.16% volume: 0.74 million shares
Jul10 21.00 Calls: volume over 22010, versus Open Interest of 8836
Apr10 17.00 Puts: volume over 11878, versus Open Interest of 1319

XLP: $27.53 up $0.0400 or 0.15% volume: 0.92 million shares
Jun10 26.00 Puts: volume over 19500, versus Open Interest of 9331

CMC: $17.38 up $1.1300 or 6.95% volume: 4.04 million shares
Mar10 17.50 Calls: volume over 17039, versus Open Interest of 19772

CSCO: $26.16 up $0.0250 or 0.10% volume: 48.81 million shares
Mar10 27.00 Calls: volume over 15863, versus Open Interest of 16764
Apr10 26.00 Calls: volume over 12968, versus Open Interest of 69724

AAPL: $223.69 up $4.6100 or 2.10% volume: 10.11 million shares
Mar10 230.00 Calls: volume over 15179, versus Open Interest of 24745
Mar10 220.00 Calls: volume over 14629, versus Open Interest of 36850

XLK: $22.55 up $0.1200 or 0.53% volume: 4.02 million shares
Jan11 20.00 Puts: volume over 15000, versus Open Interest of 44430

XRT: $39.74 up $0.1290 or 0.33% volume: 2.79 million shares
Jun10 38.00 Puts: volume over 13001, versus Open Interest of 2211

BAC: $16.82 up $0.0799 or 0.48% volume: 56.11 million shares
Mar10 17.00 Calls: volume over 12499, versus Open Interest of 166550

UNG: $8.21 down $0.0500 or 0.61% volume: 4.08 million shares
Mar10 9.00 Calls: volume over 12185, versus Open Interest of 71909

RIMM: $74.32 up $0.9300 or 1.27% volume: 7.75 million shares
Mar10 75.00 Calls: volume over 11960, versus Open Interest of 49525

FRPT: $6.12 up $0.6420 or 11.72% volume: 1.56 million shares
Jun10 7.50 Calls: volume over 10039, versus Open Interest of 954

These are my team’s early morning observations. If there are other big moves you would like to see added to today’s list, please feel free to add your observations in the comments.

August Roundup: A Look at Some Specific Stocks Compared with Major Market Averages

Saturday, August 29th, 2009

With August almost in the books I believe it is worthwhile to look at some specific sectors and stocks relative to the major market averages.

For a reference point the SPX index started the year at a level of 903.25.  So with today’s close at 1028.93 the overall market is up almost 14%.  It is more impressive to remember that on March 9th the index closed at 676.53, after hitting a intra-day low of 666.79 (up 54% from intra-day low)

On the sector front the best performing sector has been Info Tech up almost 40% YTD.

Within the highest weighted Tech companies Apple (AAPL) stands out,  up almost 100% .  Google (GOOG) a more pedestrian 51%.  Microsoft and Intel 27% and 38% respectively.

Also a leading sector the Materials sector has enjoyed just over a 30% YTD return

Freeport McMoran (FCX) a copper and gold company stands 167% higher than the start of the year!

Heavy weight Monsanto (MON) is only better by 18%

Consumer Discretionary names as a sector are up by 23.6% from the start of the year.  This sector as it is driven by consumers has definite winners and losers.  McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) which was a relative bastion of safety in the last quarter of 2008 is actually down9.8% on the year.  This is likely because investors have rotated out of safety into higher beta higher risk names.

Ford (F) is back from the dead, taking the pole position of the top 15 members in this sector up 237%.  Remember this company did not take government money as Chrysler and General Motors (MTLQQ.PK) did.  Amazon (AMZN), up 61%, Target  (TGT) up 37% and Kohls (KSS) up 45%, are three retailers that compare favorably.

The consumer staples sector is higher by only 3% as investors have rotated out of traditional safety stocks.  Proctor Gamble (PG) is down 13% Wal Mart (WMT) is down almost 9% and Coca-Cola (KO) is up only 8%.

Lastly Financials are up 17% for the year.  This sector has had the biggest thrill ride at the lows it was down over 50%, from the lows it is up 143%!

Goldman Sachs (GS) is up 94% to lead the charge

American Experess (AXP) is higher by 84% as the consumer is still using the little green cards.

In the Banking subsector Wells Fargo (WFC) is still down on the year losing 7.3%

Citigroup (C) still has issues down 22%

Bank of America (BAC)  has recovered 27%

And J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) is up a respectable 36% which is great by most measures, unfortunately they measure vs. Goldman Sachs typically.  So Jamie Dimon is probably disappointed.

The next move in the overall market is anyone’s guess.  The 10 day historical vol is calculated today at 10.79%.  The VIX is stubbornly staying near the 25% level, possibly indicating we are entering a more volatile trading environment into the last 4 months of the year.  The more dispersion between sectors, and between stocks in performance the more “normal” trading will be.

Remember the stock market is the ultimate forward looking indicator of future cash flows and expected growth for the economy and individual companies.

There is no better indicator out there.